Exeter City 1–2 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Exeter City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Oldham

R. Williams 12'

D. Rowe 32'

G. Blackwood 21'

11/21/2020

League Two · Round 13St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Exeter City48%

×Draw26%

Oldham27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Exeter City

1.52

Oldham

1.07

Exeter City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 111 away

1.58

creates per match

1.16

0.98

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Exeter City

1.58

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Exeter City

0.98

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

73%

Exeter City or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

52%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

24%

Oldham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

78%

Exeter City 2+ goals

45%

Exeter City 3+ goals

20%

Oldham 1+ goals

66%

Oldham 2+ goals

29%

Oldham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

64%

Oldham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.58 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oldham attack 1.16 + Exeter City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more

48%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

27%

Exeter City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

I. Lawlor

Oldham · G

8.0

Match Events

12'

R. Williams

21'

G. Blackwood↳ D. Bahamboula

24'

Jake Taylor

32'

D. Rowe

40'

Joel Randall

46'

A. Hartridge← J. Caprice

47'

Cameron Borthwick-Jackson

57'

N. Law← J. Taylor

57'

N. Ajose← J. Randall

59'

Ben Garrity

69'

J. Barnett← G. Blackwood

70'

B. Grant← D. Bahamboula

76'

A. Fisher← M. Jay

76'

Sido Jombati← R. Diarra

83'

C. Whelan← B. Garrity

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterOldham

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots14

8Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots14

7On Target8

3Off Target4

5Blocked2

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

61%Possession39%

463Total Passes298

335Accurate Passes190

72%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0