Oldham 2–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

3/23/2021

League Two · Round 29Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Oldham36%

×Draw26%

Exeter City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.33

Oldham

1.31

Exeter City

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 90 away

1.45

creates per match

1.24

1.42

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Exeter City

1.24

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Exeter City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

63%

Oldham or Exeter City

74%

Draw or Exeter City

64%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

16%

Exeter City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

73%

Oldham 2+ goals

38%

Oldham 3+ goals

14%

Exeter City 1+ goals

74%

Exeter City 2+ goals

38%

Exeter City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

49%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Exeter City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Exeter City attack 1.24 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oldham scores more

36%

level

26%

Exeter City scores more

37%

Exeter City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff