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Universidad Catolica vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
L. Escalada 83'
B. Vides 73'
E. Filippetto 90+3'
B. Oña 6'
3/12/2016Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 7Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Universidad Catolica57%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Cuenca20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universidad Catolica
1.84
Deportivo Cuenca
1.00

Universidad Catolica creates 84% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Universidad Catolica
2.12
Deportivo Cuenca
1.29

allows per match

Universidad Catolica
0.72
Deportivo Cuenca
1.56

finishing

Universidad Catolica+0.63scores more
Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad Catolica ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Universidad Catolica or draw
80%
Universidad Catolica or Deportivo Cuenca
77%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
43%

Winning margin

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
84%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
55%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
28%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
74%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad Catolica at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.72 · 8 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad Catolica attack 2.12 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Universidad Catolica defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Universidad Catolica scores more
57%
level
23%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
20%

Universidad Catolica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
B. Oña
73'
B. Vides
83'
L. Escalada
90+3'
E. Filippetto

Match Recap: Universidad Catolica vs Deportivo Cuenca

Universidad Catolica and Deportivo Cuenca drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on March 12, 2016.

Goals: B. Oña (6'), B. Vides (73'), L. Escalada (83'), E. Filippetto (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).