Deportivo Cuenca vs Universidad Catolica

Deportivo Cuenca

Preview

19:00

Universidad Catolica

7/18/2026

Liga Pro · Round 20Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Big match

39%

Deportivo Cuenca

model favours

39%26%34%

87% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca39%

×Draw26%

Universidad Catolica34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.25

Deportivo Cuenca

1.35

Universidad Catolica

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

1.42

creates per match

1.45

1.06

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.42

Universidad Catolica

1.45

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.06

Universidad Catolica

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

66%

Deportivo Cuenca or Universidad Catolica

74%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

18%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

15%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

71%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

36%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

53%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.42 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Universidad Catolica attack 1.45 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

39%

level

26%

Universidad Catolica scores more

34%

Deportivo Cuenca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo Cuenca score first in only 27% of matches
Both teams score in 73% of Universidad Catolica’s matches
Both teams score in only 33% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
Universidad Catolica fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Deportivo Cuenca

Balanced

Universidad Catolica

Possession-dominant

49%Possession61%

78%Pass accuracy85%

11.9Shots13.7

0.93xGBiggest gap1.53

Deportivo CuencaUniversidad Catolica

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1

Deportivo Cuenca

1

Draws

3

Universidad Catolica

Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 80%

0–11–23–11–23–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Cuenca

DLLDW

Catolica

WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff