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ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
E. Reitan 55' (OG)
K. Jakobsen 28'
C. Holse 67'
8/2/2020EliteserienEliteserien · Round 12Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb41%
×Draw24%
Rosenborg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.56
Rosenborg
1.42

ODD Ballklubb creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Rosenborg
1.35

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.49
Rosenborg
1.81

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par
Rosenborg+0.01on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
65%
ODD Ballklubb or Rosenborg
76%
Draw or Rosenborg
59%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
20%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
79%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
46%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
21%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
76%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
41%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
54%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.81 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rosenborg attack 1.35 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
41%
level
24%
Rosenborg scores more
35%

ODD Ballklubb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. HolseRosenborgRosenborg · F
7.7

Match Events

28'
K. Jakobsen↳ V. Hoff
36'
Even Hovland
46'
Pål André Helland
55'
E. ReitanOwn goal
61'
D. Islamović← E. Tagseth
61'
E. Ceïde← P. Helland
61'
G. Åsen← P. Skjelbred
67'
C. Holse↳ A. Trondsen
68'
F. Nordkvelle← K. Jakobsen
79'
F. Jørgensen← M. Bakenga
79'
B. Njie← M. Kaasa

Possession

ODD: 44Rosenborg: 5644%ODD

Shots

ODD: 11Rosenborg: 711ODD

Pass accuracy

ODD: 80Rosenborg: 8648%ODD

Statistics

ODDRosenborg
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots7
2Corners8
14Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots7
2On Target2
4Off Target3
5Blocked2
6Inside Box4
5Outside Box3
Passing
44%Possession56%
424Total Passes510
338Accurate Passes437
80%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
5Offsides1

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg

ODD Ballklubb beat Rosenborg 2-1 in Eliteserien on August 2, 2020.

Goals: K. Jakobsen (28'), E. Reitan (55' o.g.), C. Holse (67').

Rosenborg controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.