ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Molde: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Molde

O. Midtskogen 78'

6/11/2023

Eliteserien · Round 10Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb35%

×Draw25%

Molde40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.45

ODD Ballklubb

1.33

Molde

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.35

creates per match

1.34

1.55

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

Molde

1.34

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

Molde

1.30

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more

Molde+0.03on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

60%

ODD Ballklubb or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

65%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

15%

Molde wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

74%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

15%

Molde 1+ goals

77%

Molde 2+ goals

42%

Molde 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

46%

Molde (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Molde away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Molde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Molde attack 1.34 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

35%

level

25%

Molde scores more

40%

Molde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Johansen

ODD Ballklubb · D

7.7

Match Events

28'

Sondre Solholm Johansen

33'

Ole Erik Midtskogen

34'

K. Eriksen← V. Berisha

38'

B. Bang-Kittelsen← M. Ingebrigtsen

46'

A. Hagelskjær← B. Risa

48'

Anders Hagelskjær

50'

Leonard Owusu

64'

M. Eikrem← M. Grødem

67'

D. Gjengaar← B. Bang-Kittelsen

78'

O. Midtskogen

82'

B. Hansen← S. Sinyan

82'

N. Ødegård← E. Breivik

90+3'

90+3'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDMolde

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots16

5Corners11

11Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots16

4On Target2

2Off Target8

0Blocked6

4Inside Box10

2Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

448Total Passes568

376Accurate Passes501

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Molde

ODD Ballklubb beat Molde 1-0 in Eliteserien on June 11, 2023.

Goals: O. Midtskogen (78').

Molde controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.

ODD Ballklubb vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Molde