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ODD Ballklubb vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Molde
Molde
T. Lauritsen 72'
D. Fofana 49'
S. Owusu 14' (OG)
6/19/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 10Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb35%
×Draw25%
Molde40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.33
Molde
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.35
Molde
1.34

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.55
Molde
1.30

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more
Molde+0.03on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
60%
ODD Ballklubb or Molde
75%
Draw or Molde
65%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
15%
Molde wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
74%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
38%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
15%
Molde 1+ goals
77%
Molde 2+ goals
42%
Molde 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
46%
Molde (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Molde away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Molde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Molde attack 1.34 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
35%
level
25%
Molde scores more
40%

Molde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
T. LauritsenODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · F
7.6

Match Events

14'
S. OwusuOwn goal
19'
Birk Risa
49'
D. Fofana↳ K. Haugen
64'
M. Kaasa← M. Grødem
67'
David Datro Fofana
68'
E. Ruud← G. Rólantsson
68'
M. Ingebrigtsen← F. Jørgensen
72'
T. Lauritsen↳ J. Baccay
75'
R. Zekhnini← M. Eikrem
85'
S. Aas← M. Jevtović
90+4'
Mikael Ingebrigtsen
90+4'
Erling Knudtzon
90'
E. Knudtzon← D. Fofana

Possession

53%ODD

Shots

16ODD

Pass accuracy

51%ODD

Statistics

ODDMolde
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots16
3Corners3
6Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots16
7On Target3
3Off Target10
6Blocked3
8Inside Box13
8Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
523Total Passes462
436Accurate Passes366
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
6Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 1–2 Molde

Molde beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 in Eliteserien on June 19, 2022.

Goals: S. Owusu (14' o.g.), D. Fofana (49'), T. Lauritsen (72').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.