Molde 4–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

M. Eikrem 79'

F. Gulbrandsen 70'

E. Hestad 43', 30'

T. Svendsen 38'

9/16/2023

Eliteserien · Round 22Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Molde62%

×Draw20%

ODD Ballklubb18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.07

Molde

2.16

ODD Ballklubb

1.07

Molde creates 102% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

2.09

creates per match

0.94

1.21

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Molde

2.09

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Molde

1.21

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Molde+0.29scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Molde or draw

82%

Molde or ODD Ballklubb

80%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

38%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

39%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

88%

Molde 2+ goals

63%

Molde 3+ goals

36%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

66%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

29%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

78%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.21 · 26 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.09 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.16

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Molde defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Molde scores more

62%

level

20%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

18%

Molde at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Hestad

Molde · M

8.9

Match Events

30'

E. Hestad

38'

T. Svendsen↳ S. Johansen

43'

E. Hestad↳ E. Kitolano

53'

M. Ingebrigtsen← D. Gjengaar

66'

F. Tewelde← O. Midtskogen

66'

T. Rekdal← F. Jørgensen

67'

F. Gulbrandsen← E. Kitolano

67'

M. Eikrem← V. Berisha

70'

F. Gulbrandsen↳ M. Eikrem

74'

M. Grødem← E. Hestad

74'

K. Eriksen← M. Kaasa

79'

M. Eikrem↳ M. Grødem

83'

Tobias Hammer Svendsen

86'

G. Nyheim← E. Breivik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeODD

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots14

2.99Expected Goals (xG)0.71

3Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots14

9On Target5

6Off Target5

4Blocked4

13Inside Box6

6Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

575Total Passes502

487Accurate Passes416

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0