Molde 1–2 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

K. Eriksen 33'

F. Tewelde 70'

B. Bang-Kittelsen 35'

4/17/2024

Eliteserien · Round 17Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Molde62%

×Draw20%

ODD Ballklubb18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.05

Molde

2.15

ODD Ballklubb

1.05

Molde creates 105% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

2.08

creates per match

0.94

1.16

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Molde

2.08

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Molde

1.16

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Molde+0.28scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Molde or draw

82%

Molde or ODD Ballklubb

80%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

38%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

39%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

88%

Molde 2+ goals

63%

Molde 3+ goals

36%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

28%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

78%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.08 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.15

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Molde defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Molde scores more

62%

level

20%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

18%

Molde at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. Hagelskjær

Molde · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

35'

46'

46'

58'

Tobias Hammer Svendsen

59'

H. Stenevik← M. Linnes

60'

A. Roaldsøy← M. Møller Dæhli

60'

A. Olanare← M. Eikrem

69'

F. Tewelde← B. Njie

70'

F. Tewelde↳ M. Ingebrigtsen

75'

J. Bakke← E. Haugan

83'

M. Ivančević← B. Bang-Kittelsen

83'

O. Midtskogen← M. Ingebrigtsen

90+5'

Kristian Eriksen

90'

J. Skau← E. Hussain

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeODD

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots3

2.68Expected Goals (xG)0.27

5Corners0

10Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots3

5On Target2

9Off Target0

3Blocked1

15Inside Box3

2Outside Box0

Passing

68%Possession32%

670Total Passes328

582Accurate Passes254

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

Eliteserien: Molde 1–2 ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Molde 2-1 in Eliteserien on April 17, 2024.

Goals: K. Eriksen (33'), B. Bang-Kittelsen (35'), F. Tewelde (70').

Molde controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.

Molde vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Molde 1–2 ODD Ballklubb