ODD Ballklubb 1–1 Molde: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Molde

E. Ruud 68'

R. Gabrielsen 17'

9/2/2018

Eliteserien · Round 21Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb33%

×Draw25%

Molde42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.50

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Molde

1.50

Molde creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 39 away

1.30

creates per match

1.52

1.49

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Molde

1.52

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Molde

1.30

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Molde+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

58%

ODD Ballklubb or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

67%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

14%

Molde wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Molde 1+ goals

78%

Molde 2+ goals

44%

Molde 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

44%

Molde (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Molde away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Molde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Molde attack 1.52 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

33%

level

25%

Molde scores more

42%

Molde at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Gabrielsen

Molde · D

7.7

Match Events

17'

R. Gabrielsen↳ M. Eikrem

41'

I. Ssewankambo← K. Haugen

46'

Joshua Kitolano← T. Børven

63'

M. Mostrøm← M. Eikrem

64'

Isak Ssewankambo

65'

T. Lauritsen← M. Broberg

68'

E. Ruud↳ Joshua Kitolano

76'

P. Cibicki← C. Remmer

78'

S. Mladenovic← B. Njie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDMolde

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots9

8Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots9

2On Target2

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

431Total Passes493

347Accurate Passes405

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Molde

ODD Ballklubb and Molde drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 2, 2018.

Goals: R. Gabrielsen (17'), E. Ruud (68').

Molde controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.

ODD Ballklubb vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Molde