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ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
M. Ingebrigtsen 69'
H. Bruseth 34'
6/28/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 12Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb46%
×Draw24%
Kristiansund BK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.66
Kristiansund BK
1.27

ODD Ballklubb creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.35
Kristiansund BK
0.98

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.55
Kristiansund BK
1.97

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more
Kristiansund BK-0.02on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Kristiansund BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
71%
ODD Ballklubb or Kristiansund BK
76%
Draw or Kristiansund BK
54%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
24%
Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
81%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
49%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
23%
Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
72%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
36%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
61%
Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.97 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kristiansund BK attack 0.98 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
46%
level
24%
Kristiansund BK scores more
29%

ODD Ballklubb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. IngebrigtsenODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · M
8.2

Match Events

34'
H. Bruseth↳ O. Sivertsen
55'
C. Aasbak← O. Sivertsen
60'
S. Aas← T. Svendsen
60'
S. Skjeldal← J. Baccay
67'
Christoffer Aasbak
69'
M. Ingebrigtsen↳ B. Njie
70'
Etzaz Hussain
81'
D. Tufekcic← H. Bruseth
86'
B. Bang-Kittelsen← B. Njie
89'
Jesper Isaksen
89'
L. Alvheim← H. Mikaelsson
89'
H. Haugen← H. Sjåtil

Possession

59%ODD

Shots

16ODD

Pass accuracy

51%ODD

Statistics

ODDKristiansund
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots5
2.98Expected Goals (xG)0.38
7Corners2
8Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots5
5On Target1
7Off Target4
4Blocked0
13Inside Box4
3Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
556Total Passes385
468Accurate Passes314
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK

ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on June 28, 2024.

Goals: H. Bruseth (34'), M. Ingebrigtsen (69').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.