ODD Ballklubb 1–1 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kristiansund BK

M. Jevtović 28' (pen)

B. Bye 17'

10/9/2022

Eliteserien · Round 25Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb46%

×Draw24%

Kristiansund BK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.27

ODD Ballklubb

1.66

Kristiansund BK

1.27

ODD Ballklubb creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.35

creates per match

0.98

1.55

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

Kristiansund BK

0.98

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

Kristiansund BK

1.97

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more

Kristiansund BK-0.02on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

71%

ODD Ballklubb or Kristiansund BK

76%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

54%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

24%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

81%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

49%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

23%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

72%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

36%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

61%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.97 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kristiansund BK attack 0.98 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

46%

level

24%

Kristiansund BK scores more

29%

ODD Ballklubb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Kartum

Kristiansund BK · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

B. Bye↳ S. Kartum

28'

M. JevtovićPenalty

36'

58'

66'

69'

77'

I. Mesík← O. Bjørtuft

77'

P. Zulechner← V. Hoff

78'

A. Askar← L. Kalludra

78'

P. Chrupałła← B. Willumsson

86'

D. Gjengaar← M. Ingebrigtsen

86'

A. Coly← M. Williamsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDKristiansund

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots11

5Corners9

7Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target1

4Off Target6

3Blocked4

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

518Total Passes426

429Accurate Passes335

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK

ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on October 9, 2022.

Goals: B. Bye (17'), M. Jevtović (28' pen).

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.

ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK