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Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
CANC
00:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
9/25/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 23Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Kristiansund BK48%
×Draw23%
ODD Ballklubb28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund BK
1.76
ODD Ballklubb
1.29

Kristiansund BK creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kristiansund BK
1.29
ODD Ballklubb
0.94

allows per match

Kristiansund BK
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
2.22

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw
72%
Kristiansund BK or ODD Ballklubb
77%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
52%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
26%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
83%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
52%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
26%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
72%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
37%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
63%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.29 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.76

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more
48%
level
23%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
28%

Kristiansund BK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kristiansund BK vs ODD Ballklubb — Match Preview

Kristiansund BK face ODD Ballklubb on September 25, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kristiansund BK host ODD Ballklubb at Kristiansund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.