ODD Ballklubb 2–1 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kristiansund BK

M. Bakenga 37'

K. Jakobsen 20'

A. Pellegrino 17' (pen)

8/16/2020

Eliteserien · Round 14Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb46%

×Draw24%

Kristiansund BK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.29

ODD Ballklubb

1.65

Kristiansund BK

1.29

ODD Ballklubb creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

1.09

1.49

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Kristiansund BK

1.09

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Kristiansund BK

2.00

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

70%

ODD Ballklubb or Kristiansund BK

76%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

54%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

24%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

81%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

49%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

23%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

72%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

37%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

60%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kristiansund BK attack 1.09 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

46%

level

24%

Kristiansund BK scores more

30%

ODD Ballklubb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Jakobsen

ODD Ballklubb · F

7.7

Match Events

17'

A. PellegrinoPenalty

20'

K. Jakobsen↳ B. Risa

37'

M. Bakenga↳ E. Rashani

45'

Liridon Kalludra

62'

B. Bye← F. Pemi

62'

P. Ulvestad← L. Kalludra

70'

F. Nordkvelle← K. Jakobsen

75'

A. Askar← F. Kastrati

75'

A. Coly← B. Sørmo

76'

O. Cavin Diagne← P. Ulvestad

82'

O. Ugwuadu← M. Kaasa

89'

B. Njie← M. Bakenga

90'

Ousseynou Diagne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDKristiansund

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots11

4Corners3

10Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target2

6Off Target6

2Blocked3

7Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

472Total Passes335

403Accurate Passes247

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls18

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1