ODD Ballklubb 1–2 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ham-Kam

M. Ingebrigtsen 28'

T. Sørås 63'

J. Norheim 24'

7/13/2024

Eliteserien · Round 14Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb43%

×Draw25%

Ham-Kam32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.29

ODD Ballklubb

1.54

Ham-Kam

1.29

ODD Ballklubb creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.35

creates per match

1.04

1.55

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

Ham-Kam

1.04

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

Ham-Kam

1.74

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more

Ham-Kam-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

68%

ODD Ballklubb or Ham-Kam

75%

Draw or Ham-Kam

57%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

21%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

79%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

45%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

20%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

72%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

37%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

57%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Ham-Kam defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ham-Kam attack 1.04 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

43%

level

25%

Ham-Kam scores more

32%

ODD Ballklubb at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Norheim

Ham-Kam · D

8.2

Match Events

24'

J. Norheim↳ G. Simenstad

28'

M. Ingebrigtsen↳ E. Ruud

31'

Viðar Ari Jónsson

46'

M. Ivančević← S. Owusu

46'

S. Strand Nilsen← V. Jónsson

59'

P. Kirkevold← N. Ødegård

63'

T. Sørås

68'

B. Njie← F. Tewelde

68'

S. Aas← E. Ruud

83'

O. Hagen← O. Midtskogen

84'

Mihajlo Ivančević

84'

S. Johansen← T. Svendsen

90+3'

M. Mawa← H. Udahl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDHam-Kam

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots13

6Corners7

15Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target5

3Off Target4

1Blocked4

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

399Total Passes394

330Accurate Passes315

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2