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Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
L. Hien 83'
6/25/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Ham-Kam49%
×Draw23%
ODD Ballklubb28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.76
ODD Ballklubb
1.28

Ham-Kam creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.29
ODD Ballklubb
0.94

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.62
ODD Ballklubb
2.22

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.41scores more
ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
72%
Ham-Kam or ODD Ballklubb
77%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
51%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
26%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
83%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
52%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
26%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
72%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
37%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
63%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 30 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.29 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.76

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Ham-Kam defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
49%
level
23%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
28%

Ham-Kam at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
W. KurtovićHam-KamHam-Kam · M
7.6

Match Events

65'
Conrad Wallem
69'
Halvor Rodolen Opsahl
77'
R. Wiedesheim-Paul← H. Udahl
81'
L. Hien← O. Midtskogen
83'
L. Hien↳ S. Owusu
85'
T. Rekdal← S. Owusu
88'
O. Kjærgaard← K. Hernández-Foster
88'
V. Kongsro← A. Melgalvis
88'
B. Thoresen← K. Onsrud
90+2'
S. Skjeldal← D. Gjengaar

Possession

58%Ham-Kam

Shots

16Ham-Kam

Pass accuracy

50%Ham-Kam

Statistics

Ham-KamODD
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots7
9Corners4
10Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots7
4On Target3
6Off Target2
6Blocked2
11Inside Box7
5Outside Box0
Passing
58%Possession42%
505Total Passes371
427Accurate Passes316
85%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Ham-Kam 0–1 ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 1-0 in Eliteserien on June 25, 2023.

Goals: L. Hien (83').

Ham-Kam controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.