ODD Ballklubb 2–0 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ham-Kam

F. Jørgensen 48'

J. Baccay 2'

10/29/2023

Eliteserien · Round 26Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb44%

×Draw25%

Ham-Kam32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

ODD Ballklubb

1.56

Ham-Kam

1.29

ODD Ballklubb creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

1.35

creates per match

1.03

1.55

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.35

Ham-Kam

1.03

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

Ham-Kam

1.78

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more

Ham-Kam-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

68%

ODD Ballklubb or Ham-Kam

75%

Draw or Ham-Kam

56%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

22%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

79%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

46%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

21%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

72%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

37%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

58%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Ham-Kam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ham-Kam attack 1.03 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

44%

level

25%

Ham-Kam scores more

32%

ODD Ballklubb at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Kristian Bråtveit

ODD Ballklubb · G

8.3

Match Events

2'

J. Baccay

10'

Leonard Owusu

44'

Josef Baccay

48'

F. Jørgensen↳ M. Ingebrigtsen

58'

Espen Ruud

59'

H. Udahl← P. Kirkevold

59'

A. Melgalvis← V. Kongsro

59'

M. Bjørlo← W. Kurtović

70'

Leon Hien

73'

M. Mawa← O. Kjærgaard

78'

D. Gjengaar← T. Svendsen

81'

O. Midtskogen← F. Tewelde

82'

J. Skau← L. Hien

84'

B. Bjarnason← K. Onsrud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDHam-Kam

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots11

2.37Expected Goals (xG)0.81

4Corners6

8Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target5

9Off Target3

1Blocked3

11Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

564Total Passes381

496Accurate Passes296

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls9

4Yellow Cards0

0Offsides5

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam

ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 2-0 in Eliteserien on October 29, 2023.

Goals: J. Baccay (2'), F. Jørgensen (48').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.

ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam