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ODD Ballklubb vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
M. Jevtović 89' (pen), 49' (pen)
9/17/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 23Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

ODD Ballklubb43%
×Draw25%
Ham-Kam32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.54
Ham-Kam
1.29

ODD Ballklubb creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.35
Ham-Kam
1.04

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.55
Ham-Kam
1.74

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.10scores more
Ham-Kam-0.11scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
68%
ODD Ballklubb or Ham-Kam
75%
Draw or Ham-Kam
57%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
21%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
79%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
45%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
20%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
72%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
37%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
57%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.35 + Ham-Kam defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ham-Kam attack 1.04 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
43%
level
25%
Ham-Kam scores more
32%

ODD Ballklubb at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
V. HoffODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · M
8.5

Match Events

45'
Hassan Kurucay
49'
M. JevtovićPenalty
55'
E. Sildnes← R. Hassan
55'
P. Kirkevold← V. Lind
72'
M. Pedersen← J. Enkerud
82'
D. Gjengaar← M. Ingebrigtsen
85'
Vegard Kongsro
89'
M. JevtovićPenalty
90+5'
T. Rekdal← V. Hoff
90'
J. Baccay← M. Jevtović

Possession

53%ODD

Shots

10ODD

Pass accuracy

51%ODD

Statistics

ODDHam-Kam
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots9
2Corners5
8Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots9
3On Target1
6Off Target4
1Blocked4
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
457Total Passes404
370Accurate Passes311
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 2–0 Ham-Kam

ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 2-0 in Eliteserien on September 17, 2022.

Goals: M. Jevtović (49' pen, 89' pen).

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.