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Nyva Buzova vs Khust City — Persha Liga 2019

Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Khust City
Khust City
9/10/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 7Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nyva Buzova42%
×Draw25%
Khust City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyva Buzova
1.48
Khust City
1.25

Nyva Buzova creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nyva Buzova
1.07
Khust City
1.06

allows per match

Nyva Buzova
1.43
Khust City
1.89

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par
Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Khust City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw
68%
Nyva Buzova or Khust City
75%
Draw or Khust City
58%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
21%
Khust City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
77%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
43%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
19%
Khust City 1+ goals
71%
Khust City 2+ goals
36%
Khust City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
57%
Khust City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 1.07 + Khust City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Khust City attack 1.06 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more
42%
level
25%
Khust City scores more
32%

Nyva Buzova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nyva Buzova vs Khust City

Nyva Buzova and Khust City drew 2-2 in Persha Liga on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.