Nyva Buzova 0–1 Khust City: Result & Stats

Nyva Buzova

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Khust City

B. Pavlych 15'

5/28/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 18Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nyva Buzova58%

×Draw23%

Khust City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyva BuzovaExpected goals in this matchKhust City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.95

Nyva Buzova

1.83

Khust City

0.95

Nyva Buzova creates 93% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.56

creates per match

1.33

0.56

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Nyva Buzova

2.56

Khust City

1.33

allows per match

Nyva Buzova

0.56

Khust City

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyva Buzova ↓

Khust City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nyva Buzova or draw

81%

Nyva Buzova or Khust City

77%

Draw or Khust City

42%

Winning margin

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

33%

Khust City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

84%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

54%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

28%

Khust City 1+ goals

61%

Khust City 2+ goals

25%

Khust City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

75%

Khust City (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyva Buzova at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyva Buzova attack 2.56 + Khust City defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Khust City attack 1.33 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nyva Buzova scores more

58%

level

23%

Khust City scores more

19%

Nyva Buzova at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

B. Pavlych

43'

I. Tykhnenko

46'

I. Sklyarenko← A. Taran

46'

B. Semenets← D. Skepskyi

55'

Y. Zakharevych← S. Zuevych

69'

I. Koshman← V. Tymenko

72'

M. Evpak← V. Turchanov

77'

M. Pylyp← V. Borysenko

77'

R. Pylyp← V. Merdeev

90+1'

K. Kolchin← N. Prykhodko

90+6'

A. Strilets← P. Lutsiv

Nyva

Khust

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Karpenko

46'▲I. Sklyarenko←▼A. Taran

46'▲B. Semenets←▼D. Skepskyi

55'▲Y. Zakharevych←▼S. Zuevych

69'▲I. Koshman←▼V. Tymenko

72'▲M. Evpak←▼V. Turchanov

Nyva Buzova substitutes

SklyarenkoSemenetsZakharevychKoshmanEvpak

Manager: V. Tsytkin

77'▲M. Pylyp←▼V. Borysenko

77'▲R. Pylyp←▼V. Merdeev

90+1'▲K. Kolchin←▼N. Prykhodko

90+6'▲A. Strilets←▼P. Lutsiv

Khust City substitutes

PylypPylypKolchinStrilets