Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khust City vs Nyva Buzova — Persha Liga 2019

Khust City
Khust City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nyva Buzova
Nyva Buzova
11/12/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 16Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Khust City29%
×Draw25%
Nyva Buzova46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
1.15
Nyva Buzova
1.52

Nyva Buzova creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Khust City
1.29
Nyva Buzova
1.21

allows per match

Khust City
1.82
Nyva Buzova
1.00

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Nyva Buzova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
54%
Khust City or Nyva Buzova
75%
Draw or Nyva Buzova
71%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
11%
Nyva Buzova wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
68%
Khust City 2+ goals
32%
Khust City 3+ goals
11%
Nyva Buzova 1+ goals
78%
Nyva Buzova 2+ goals
45%
Nyva Buzova 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
39%
Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khust City scores more
29%
level
25%
Nyva Buzova scores more
46%

Nyva Buzova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nyva Buzova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khust City vs Nyva Buzova

Nyva Buzova beat Khust City 1-0 in Persha Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Karpaty in Khust.