Khust City 0–1 Nyva Buzova: Result & Stats

Khust City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nyva Buzova

A. Taran 12'

10/29/2022

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 9Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khust City44%

×Draw26%

Nyva Buzova30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khust CityExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Khust City

1.44

Nyva Buzova

1.13

Khust City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.50

creates per match

1.63

0.63

allows per match

0.38

creates per match

Khust City

2.50

Nyva Buzova

1.63

allows per match

Khust City

0.63

Nyva Buzova

0.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khust City or draw

70%

Khust City or Nyva Buzova

74%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

56%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+

21%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals

76%

Khust City 2+ goals

42%

Khust City 3+ goals

18%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

68%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

31%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)

60%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 2.50 + Nyva Buzova defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nyva Buzova attack 1.63 + Khust City defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khust City scores more

44%

level

26%

Nyva Buzova scores more

30%

Khust City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Taran

46'

M. Flyashko← V. Lesunov

63'

A. Strilets← V. Merdeev

66'

Y. Zakharevych← Y. Mykolayuk

71'

A. Golovatenko← V. Tymenko

80'

I. Bodnaruk← N. Prykhodko

80'

V. Moroz← I. Stankovych

80'

D. Zagalevych← V. Turchanov

80'

B. Semenets← D. Skepskyi

88'

I. Povkhan← B. Pavlych

Khust

Nyva

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Tsytkin

46'▲M. Flyashko←▼V. Lesunov

63'▲A. Strilets←▼V. Merdeev

80'▲I. Bodnaruk←▼N. Prykhodko

80'▲V. Moroz←▼I. Stankovych

88'▲I. Povkhan←▼B. Pavlych

Khust City substitutes

FlyashkoStriletsBodnarukMorozPovkhan

Manager: S. Karpenko

66'▲Y. Zakharevych←▼Y. Mykolayuk

71'▲A. Golovatenko←▼V. Tymenko

80'▲D. Zagalevych←▼V. Turchanov

80'▲B. Semenets←▼D. Skepskyi

Nyva Buzova substitutes

ZakharevychGolovatenkoZagalevychSemenets