Novorizontino 1–0 Guarani Campinas: Result & Stats

Novorizontino

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani Campinas

Aylon 46'

6/7/2023

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Novorizontino49%

×Draw27%

Guarani Campinas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovorizontinoExpected goals in this matchGuarani Campinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.92

Novorizontino

1.44

Guarani Campinas

0.92

Novorizontino creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.63

creates per match

0.86

0.97

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Novorizontino

1.63

Guarani Campinas

0.86

allows per match

Novorizontino

0.97

Guarani Campinas

1.25

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Novorizontino-0.22scores less

Guarani Campinas+0.03on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Guarani Campinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw

76%

Novorizontino or Guarani Campinas

73%

Draw or Guarani Campinas

51%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+

24%

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals

76%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

42%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

18%

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

60%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

23%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

67%

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

Guarani Campinas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.63 + Guarani Campinas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Guarani Campinas attack 0.86 + Novorizontino defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Novorizontino scores more

49%

level

27%

Guarani Campinas scores more

24%

Novorizontino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

Jordi

Novorizontino · G

8.0

Match Events

18'

20'

46'

63'

64'

Bruninho← Régis

65'

Léo Tocantins← Douglas Baggio

65'

Willean Lepo← Raul Prata

68'

Matheus Barbosa

68'

Bruno José

77'

Romulo← Marlon

77'

Jenison← Ronaldo

79'

Alan SantosCard upgrade

80'

Alan Santos

83'

Bernardo← Matheus Barbosa

85'

Rodolfo← Aylon

86'

Lucas Araújo← Matheus Bueno

86'

João Victor← Isaque

90+1'

Geovane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NovorizontinoGuarani

Overview

46%Possession54%

23Total Shots10

13Corners5

14Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots10

6On Target4

9Off Target5

8Blocked1

13Inside Box5

10Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

393Total Passes471

285Accurate Passes372

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2