Guarani Campinas 2–1 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Novorizontino

João Victor 83'

Derek 33'

César Martins 8'

9/30/2023

Serie B · Round 30Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Guarani Campinas40%

×Draw31%

Novorizontino29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.90

Guarani Campinas

1.11

Novorizontino

0.90

Guarani Campinas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 86 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

0.87

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.21

Novorizontino

0.93

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.87

Novorizontino

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

71%

Guarani Campinas or Novorizontino

69%

Draw or Novorizontino

60%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

17%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

67%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

30%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

10%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

59%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

23%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

58%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.87 · 111 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.21 + Novorizontino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Novorizontino attack 0.93 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

40%

level

31%

Novorizontino scores more

29%

Guarani Campinas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

César Martins

Novorizontino · D

7.5

Match Events

8'

César Martins

27'

Douglas Baggio

33'

Derek↳ Bruno José

62'

Jenison← Ronaldo

63'

Romulo← Douglas Baggio

72'

Gustavo França← Matheus Barbosa

72'

Felipe Marques← Aylon

78'

Diogo Mateus

78'

Derek FreitasGoal cancelled

80'

Lucas Araújo← Matheus Bueno

80'

Régis← Bruninho

83'

João Victor

87'

Bruno Mendes← Derek

87'

Wenderson← João Victor

87'

Joãozinho← Geovane

88'

Roberto← Reverson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniNovorizontino

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots15

7Corners1

8Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots15

4On Target5

7Off Target9

3Blocked1

6Inside Box9

8Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

276Total Passes272

198Accurate Passes218

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0