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Guarani Campinas vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Guarani Campinas
Guarani Campinas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Novorizontino
Novorizontino
Yuri 42'
Isaque 15'
9/21/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 31Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Guarani Campinas40%
×Draw31%
Novorizontino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani Campinas
1.11
Novorizontino
0.90

Guarani Campinas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 86 away

creates per match

Guarani Campinas
1.21
Novorizontino
0.93

allows per match

Guarani Campinas
0.87
Novorizontino
1.01

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par
Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Novorizontino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw
71%
Guarani Campinas or Novorizontino
69%
Draw or Novorizontino
60%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+
17%
Novorizontino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals
67%
Guarani Campinas 2+ goals
30%
Guarani Campinas 3+ goals
10%
Novorizontino 1+ goals
59%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
23%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)
58%
Novorizontino (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.87 · 111 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.21 + Novorizontino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Novorizontino attack 0.93 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more
40%
level
31%
Novorizontino scores more
29%

Guarani Campinas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
Mauricio KozlinskiGuarani CampinasGuarani Campinas · G
8.9

Match Events

5'
Ronaldo Alves
15'
Isaque↳ Yuri
19'
Léo Baiano
42'
Yuri↳ Isaque
59'
Danielzinho← D. Torres
59'
Luizinho← Léo Baiano
64'
Mayk← Leandro Vilela
65'
Eduardo Person← Jamerson
71'
Cléo Silva← Felipe Albuquerque
71'
Vinícius Leite← Douglas Baggio
75'
Edson← Isaque
75'
Yago César← Bruno José
77'
Lucas Ramon← Diogo Mateus
77'
Ronald← Lucas Tocantins
79'
Jhony Douglas
83'
Rodrigo Andrade
90+2'
Diego Quirino

Possession

49%Guarani

Shots

13Guarani

Pass accuracy

50%Guarani

Statistics

GuaraniNovorizontino
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots23
5Corners7
15Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots23
2On Target8
8Off Target11
3Blocked4
7Inside Box12
6Outside Box11
Passing
49%Possession51%
362Total Passes363
297Accurate Passes293
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
8Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Guarani Campinas vs Novorizontino

Guarani Campinas beat Novorizontino 2-0 in Serie B on September 21, 2022.

Goals: Isaque (15'), Yuri (42').

Novorizontino controlled possession (51%) and registered 23 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas, São Paulo.