Guarani Campinas 0–2 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Guarani Campinas

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Novorizontino

Matheus Salustiano 45+1' (OG)

Rafael Donato 26'

10/30/2024

Serie B · Round 34Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Guarani Campinas40%

×Draw31%

Novorizontino29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani CampinasExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.90

Guarani Campinas

1.11

Novorizontino

0.90

Guarani Campinas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 86 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

0.87

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Guarani Campinas

1.21

Novorizontino

0.93

allows per match

Guarani Campinas

0.87

Novorizontino

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani Campinas+0.00on par

Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani Campinas ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guarani Campinas or draw

71%

Guarani Campinas or Novorizontino

69%

Draw or Novorizontino

60%

Winning margin

Guarani Campinas wins by 2+

17%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guarani Campinas 1+ goals

67%

Guarani Campinas 2+ goals

30%

Guarani Campinas 3+ goals

10%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

59%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

23%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guarani Campinas (draw refunded)

58%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani Campinas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.87 · 111 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani Campinas attack 1.21 + Novorizontino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Novorizontino attack 0.93 + Guarani Campinas defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guarani Campinas scores more

40%

level

31%

Novorizontino scores more

29%

Guarani Campinas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guarani Campinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Rafael Donato

Novorizontino · D

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Jordi

23'

Luis Fellipe

25'

Yan Henrique

26'

Rafael Donato↳ Marlon

35'

Luan Dias

45+4'

Lucas Cardoso

45+1'

Matheus SalustianoOwn goal

46'

João Victor← Yan Henrique

46'

Renato Palm← Luisão

46'

Airton← Jordi

46'

Reverson← Lucas Cardoso

56'

Reverson

60'

Pierre← Gabriel Bispo

67'

Pablo Dyego← Marlon

72'

Lohan Freire← Bruno Mendes

77'

Igor Formiga← Neto Pessoa

78'

Patrick

81'

Emerson← Heitor

81'

Reinaldo← Jefferson

90'

Airton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuaraniNovorizontino

Overview

68%Possession32%

9Total Shots7

0.60Expected Goals (xG)0.90

6Corners7

10Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots7

4On Target3

5Off Target2

0Blocked2

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

572Total Passes267

467Accurate Passes172

82%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls21

2Yellow Cards6

0Offsides2