Norwich 0–1 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

V. Bayo 86'

1/2/2023

Championship · Round 26Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Norwich44%

×Draw26%

Watford30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.15

Norwich

1.45

Watford

1.15

Norwich creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

1.52

creates per match

1.01

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Norwich

1.52

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Norwich

1.29

Watford

1.38

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more

Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

70%

Norwich or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

56%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

21%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

77%

Norwich 2+ goals

42%

Norwich 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

32%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

59%

Watford (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.45

Watford attack 1.01 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Norwich scores more

44%

level

26%

Watford scores more

30%

Norwich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Gabriel Sara

Norwich · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

Jeremy Ngakia

18'

Liam Gibbs

29'

V. Bayo← S. Kalu

45'

Grant Hanley

49'

James Morris

64'

Y. Asprilla← K. Davis

68'

Francisco Sierralta

74'

A. Omobamidele← M. Aarons

83'

W. Troost-Ekong← C. Kabasele

86'

V. Bayo↳ I. Sarr

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichWatford

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots12

8Corners3

9Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots12

1On Target3

9Off Target5

5Blocked4

4Inside Box9

11Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

427Total Passes289

335Accurate Passes205

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0