Norwich 0–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

K. McAteer 87'

K. Ịheanachọ 45' (pen)

9/20/2023

Championship · Round 7Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Norwich38%

×Draw25%

Leicester37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.39

Norwich

1.42

Leicester

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.53

creates per match

1.49

1.28

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Norwich

1.53

Leicester

1.49

allows per match

Norwich

1.28

Leicester

1.31

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Norwich+0.21scores more

Leicester+0.06on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

63%

Norwich or Leicester

75%

Draw or Leicester

62%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

18%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

76%

Norwich 2+ goals

41%

Norwich 3+ goals

17%

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

51%

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.31 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.53 + Leicester defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Leicester attack 1.49 + Norwich defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Norwich scores more

38%

level

25%

Leicester scores more

37%

Norwich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Hermansen

Leicester · G

7.7

Match Events

35'

39'

42'

43'

45'

K. ỊheanachọPenalty

46'

P. Płacheta← J. Rowe

54'

A. Idah← A. Barnes

57'

W. Ndidi← Y. Akgün

57'

K. Dewsbury-Hall← C. Casadei

68'

O. Hernández← C. Fassnacht

68'

Hwang Ui-Jo← L. Gibbs

68'

J. Vardy← K. Ịheanachọ

70'

Jamie Vardy

71'

Harry Winks

78'

J. Justin← H. Choudhury

78'

A. Fatawu← S. Mavididi

87'

K. McAteer↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

90'

Jannik Vestergaard

90+8'

A. Forshaw← B. Gibson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichLeicester

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots10

0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.97

10Corners1

14Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

2On Target3

9Off Target6

4Blocked1

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

388Total Passes551

313Accurate Passes491

81%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1