Leicester 3–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Norwich

J. Vardy 90+3'

S. Mavididi 61'

K. Dewsbury-Hall 33'

Gabriel Sara 20'

4/1/2024

Championship · Round 40King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Leicester44%

×Draw26%

Norwich30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.17

Leicester

1.48

Norwich

1.17

Leicester creates 26% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

1.47

creates per match

1.20

1.13

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Leicester

1.47

Norwich

1.20

allows per match

Leicester

1.13

Norwich

1.48

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.24scores more

Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

70%

Leicester or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

56%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

22%

Norwich wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

77%

Leicester 2+ goals

43%

Leicester 3+ goals

19%

Norwich 1+ goals

69%

Norwich 2+ goals

33%

Norwich 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

60%

Norwich (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.13 · 35 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.47 + Norwich defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Norwich attack 1.20 + Leicester defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leicester scores more

44%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

30%

Leicester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Leicester · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

S. Duffy← J. Sørensen

20'

Gabriel Sara↳ M. Núñez

33'

K. Dewsbury-Hall↳ S. Mavididi

35'

Shane Duffy

61'

S. Mavididi↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

65'

Jannik Vestergaard

66'

L. Gibbs← M. Núñez

66'

C. Fassnacht← A. Barnes

77'

J. Vardy← P. Daka

85'

D. Praet← W. Ndidi

85'

H. Choudhury← Ricardo Pereira

88'

J. Justin← A. Fatawu

89'

Y. Akgün← S. Mavididi

90+3'

J. Vardy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterNorwich

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots6

2.33Expected Goals (xG)1.02

9Corners2

13Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots6

6On Target2

8Off Target2

4Blocked2

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

578Total Passes388

510Accurate Passes329

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4