Norwich 1–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

M. Kvistgaarden 62'

J. James 90'

B. De Cordova-Reid 75'

11/8/2025

Championship · Round 15Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Norwich38%

×Draw25%

Leicester37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.38

Norwich

1.41

Leicester

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

1.35

1.40

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Norwich

1.50

Leicester

1.35

allows per match

Norwich

1.40

Leicester

1.32

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.06on par

Leicester-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

63%

Norwich or Leicester

75%

Draw or Leicester

62%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

18%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

76%

Norwich 2+ goals

41%

Norwich 3+ goals

17%

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

51%

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.50 + Leicester defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Leicester attack 1.35 + Norwich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Norwich scores more

38%

level

25%

Leicester scores more

37%

Norwich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Kvistgaarden

Norwich · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

Ricardo Pereira

38'

L. Thomas← B. Nelson

62'

M. Kvistgaarden

72'

A. Forson← M. Kvistgaarden

73'

B. De Cordova-Reid← J. Ayew

73'

S. Mavididi← O. Skipp

75'

B. De Cordova-Reid↳ P. Daka

76'

Harry Darling

81'

R. McConville← O. Schwartau

90+3'

M. Jurasek← J. Makama

90'

W. Faes← C. Okoli

90'

J. James↳ I. Fatawu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichLeicester

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots14

0.30Expected Goals (xG)1.59

6Corners3

17Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target7

1Off Target4

4Blocked3

4Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

271Total Passes538

196Accurate Passes452

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-0.30Goals Prevented-0.30

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0