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Leicester vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
J. Maddison 70'
J. Vardy 62', 54'
5/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Leicester59%
×Draw23%
Norwich18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.80
Norwich
0.87

Leicester creates 107% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 54 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.56
Norwich
0.56

allows per match

Leicester
1.18
Norwich
2.04

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
82%
Leicester or Norwich
77%
Draw or Norwich
41%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
34%
Norwich wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
83%
Leicester 2+ goals
54%
Leicester 3+ goals
27%
Norwich 1+ goals
58%
Norwich 2+ goals
22%
Norwich 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
77%
Norwich (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 169 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.56 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.80

Norwich attack 0.56 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leicester scores more
59%
level
23%
Norwich scores more
18%

Leicester at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. MaddisonLeicesterLeicester · M
8.3

Match Events

46'
N. Mendy← A. Lookman
54'
J. Vardy↳ H. Barnes
58'
J. Sørensen← L. Rupp
62'
J. Vardy↳ H. Barnes
67'
J. Rowe← M. Rashica
67'
P. Płacheta← T. Springett
70'
J. Maddison

Possession

65%Leicester

Shots

20Leicester

Pass accuracy

53%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterNorwich
Overview
65%Possession35%
20Total Shots9
10Corners2
10Fouls5
Shots
20Total Shots9
8On Target5
5Off Target4
7Blocked0
11Inside Box6
9Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
640Total Passes354
573Accurate Passes285
90%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls5
1Offsides0

Premier League: Leicester 3–0 Norwich

Leicester beat Norwich 3-0 in Premier League on May 11, 2022.

Goals: J. Vardy (54', 62'), J. Maddison (70').

Leicester controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.