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Norwich vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Norwich
Norwich
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
D. Gyabi 87'
J. Gelhardt 49'
11/1/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Norwich51%
×Draw23%
Hull City26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.78
Hull City
1.19

Norwich creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.72
Hull City
1.20

allows per match

Norwich
1.18
Hull City
1.84

finishing

Norwich-0.18scores less
Hull City-0.11scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
74%
Norwich or Hull City
77%
Draw or Hull City
49%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
28%
Hull City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
83%
Norwich 2+ goals
53%
Norwich 3+ goals
26%
Hull City 1+ goals
70%
Hull City 2+ goals
33%
Hull City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
67%
Hull City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 13 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.72 + Hull City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.78

Hull City attack 1.20 + Norwich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Norwich scores more
51%
level
23%
Hull City scores more
26%

Norwich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
K. McLeanNorwichNorwich · M
8.3

Match Events

28'
Jeffrey Schlupp
46'
S. Ajayi← A. Hadziahmetovic
49'
J. Gelhardt↳ M. Crooks
71'
M. Topic← P. Mattsson
71'
M. Kvistgaarden← O. Schwartau
72'
D. Gyabi← J. Ndala
74'
Matt Crooks
78'
Kyle Joseph
79'
A. Forson← J. Makama
79'
E. Mundle Smith← K. Fisher
84'
C. Drameh← J. Gelhardt
84'
E. Destan← K. Joseph
87'
D. Gyabi

Possession

60%Norwich

Shots

15Norwich

Pass accuracy

53%Norwich

Statistics

NorwichHull
Overview
60%Possession40%
15Total Shots9
2.90Expected Goals (xG)1.72
6Corners4
8Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots9
3On Target4
7Off Target3
5Blocked2
10Inside Box6
5Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
481Total Passes322
382Accurate Passes228
79%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.25Goals Prevented0.25
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Norwich vs Hull City

Hull City beat Norwich 2-0 in Championship on November 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Gelhardt (49'), D. Gyabi (87').

Norwich controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.