Hull City 1–2 Norwich: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

T. Morton 90+1'

C. Fassnacht 88'

J. Rowe 36'

1/12/2024

Championship · Round 27The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Hull City36%

×Draw26%

Norwich38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.38

Hull City

1.34

Norwich

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

1.42

creates per match

1.36

1.39

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Hull City

1.42

Norwich

1.36

allows per match

Hull City

1.39

Norwich

1.27

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.06on par

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

62%

Hull City or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

64%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

16%

Norwich wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

39%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

Norwich 1+ goals

75%

Norwich 2+ goals

40%

Norwich 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

49%

Norwich (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.42 + Norwich defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Norwich attack 1.36 + Hull City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more

36%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

38%

Norwich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

T. Morton

Hull City · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

B. Sharp← A. Connolly

23'

34'

36'

38'

39'

46'

S. McCallum← D. Giannoulis

50'

52'

60'

61'

63'

82'

C. Fassnacht← J. Rowe

84'

H. Vaughan← M. Jacob

84'

O. Hernández← Borja Sainz

88'

C. Fassnacht

90+1'

T. Morton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullNorwich

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots9

0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.40

9Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target4

5Off Target5

9Blocked0

11Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

695Total Passes358

600Accurate Passes258

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0