Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Norwich vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Norwich
Norwich
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
Borja Sainz 78'
K. Gordon 66'
J. Sargent 20'
M. Núñez 16'
10/5/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Norwich43%
×Draw25%
Hull City32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Norwich
1.54
Hull City
1.30

Norwich creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

creates per match

Norwich
1.50
Hull City
1.17

allows per match

Norwich
1.43
Hull City
1.57

finishing

Norwich+0.07on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Norwich or draw
68%
Norwich or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
57%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+
21%
Hull City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals
79%
Norwich 2+ goals
45%
Norwich 3+ goals
20%
Hull City 1+ goals
73%
Hull City 2+ goals
37%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)
57%
Hull City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.50 + Hull City defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hull City attack 1.17 + Norwich defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norwich scores more
43%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
32%

Norwich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Borja SainzNorwichNorwich · M
8.6

Match Events

14'
Mohamed Belloumi
16'
M. Núñez↳ Borja Sainz
20'
J. Sargent↳ Borja Sainz
24'
Marcelino Núñez
46'
G. Long← A. Gunn
46'
C. Hughes← S. McLoughlin
56'
Josh SargentMissed penalty
57'
Cody Drameh
58'
K. Gordon← A. Crnac
62'
S. Alzate← Ó. Zambrano
62'
R. Giles← C. Drameh
66'
K. Gordon
70'
O. Schwartau← A. Ben Slimane
72'
João Pedro← C. Bedia
72'
A. Kamara← L. Millar
76'
João Pedro Galvão
77'
Oscar Schwartau
78'
Borja Sainz↳ C. Doyle
80'
J. Stacey← Borja Sainz
81'
E. Marcondes← J. Sargent
90+5'
Kenny McLean
90+4'
Kaide Gordon
90'
Lewie Coyle

Possession

57%Norwich

Shots

19Norwich

Pass accuracy

50%Norwich

Statistics

NorwichHull
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots16
3.83Expected Goals (xG)0.99
4Corners7
11Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots16
9On Target5
7Off Target8
3Blocked3
15Inside Box10
4Outside Box6
Passing
57%Possession43%
539Total Passes400
470Accurate Passes351
87%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
-0.88Goals Prevented-0.88
Discipline
11Fouls14
4Yellow Cards4
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Norwich vs Hull City

Norwich beat Hull City 4-0 in Championship on October 5, 2024.

Goals: M. Núñez (16'), J. Sargent (20'), K. Gordon (66'), Borja Sainz (78').

Norwich controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.