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Hull City vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
M. Crooks 14'
J. Sargent 47'
2/15/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Hull City36%
×Draw26%
Norwich38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.34
Norwich
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.42
Norwich
1.36

allows per match

Hull City
1.39
Norwich
1.27

finishing

Hull City-0.06on par
Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
62%
Hull City or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
64%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
16%
Norwich wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
39%
Hull City 3+ goals
15%
Norwich 1+ goals
75%
Norwich 2+ goals
40%
Norwich 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
49%
Norwich (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.42 + Norwich defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Norwich attack 1.36 + Hull City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more
36%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
38%

Norwich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. AlzateHull CityHull City · M
7.7

Match Events

14'
M. Crooks↳ L. Coyle
47'
J. Sargent↳ K. Fisher
56'
Callum Doyle
58'
M. Burstow← L. Barry
65'
L. Dobbin← M. Jurásek
70'
K. Joseph← João Pedro
76'
J. Stacey← K. Fisher
77'
A. Crnac← J. Sargent
78'
Jacob Wright
79'
E. Matazo← S. Alzate
79'
A. Kamara← M. Crooks
81'
Sean McLoughlin
82'
O. Schwartau← J. Wright
82'
B. Chrisene← L. Mahovo

Possession

40%Hull

Shots

12Hull

Pass accuracy

48%Hull

Statistics

HullNorwich
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots15
0.65Expected Goals (xG)1.42
5Corners3
14Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots15
4On Target3
4Off Target5
4Blocked7
6Inside Box10
6Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
377Total Passes556
300Accurate Passes485
80%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23
Discipline
14Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Championship: Hull City 1–1 Norwich

Hull City and Norwich drew 1-1 in Championship on February 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Crooks (14'), J. Sargent (47').

Norwich controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.