Norwich 2–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hull City

A. Idah 90+6'

J. Rowe 45+3'

L. Delap 17'

8/5/2023

Championship · Round 1Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Norwich45%

×Draw25%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Norwich

1.54

Hull City

1.19

Norwich creates 29% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 58 away

1.54

creates per match

1.11

1.26

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Norwich

1.54

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Norwich

1.26

Hull City

1.54

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Norwich+0.19scores more

Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

71%

Norwich or Hull City

75%

Draw or Hull City

55%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

23%

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

79%

Norwich 2+ goals

45%

Norwich 3+ goals

20%

Hull City 1+ goals

70%

Hull City 2+ goals

33%

Hull City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

61%

Hull City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Hull City defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hull City attack 1.11 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norwich scores more

45%

level

25%

Hull City scores more

29%

Norwich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Gabriel Sara

Norwich · M

8.9

Match Events

17'

27'

30'

34'

34'

41'

45+3'

J. Rowe↳ D. Giannoulis

61'

C. Fassnacht← O. Hernández

66'

S. McLoughlin← Rúben Vinagre

66'

C. Christie← A. Traoré

72'

A. Connolly← O. Tufan

74'

M. Núñez← Gabriel Sara

74'

A. Omobamidele← B. Gibson

75'

T. Springett← J. Rowe

79'

X. Simons← H. Vaughan

79'

Ó. Estupiñán← L. Delap

86'

90'

90+5'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichHull

Overview

57%Possession43%

28Total Shots8

2.58Expected Goals (xG)0.37

9Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

28Total Shots8

5On Target3

14Off Target1

9Blocked4

19Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

549Total Passes431

468Accurate Passes344

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards5

6Offsides0