Norwich 3–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hull City

J. Sargent 89'

Gabriel Sara 58'

K. Dowell 18'

J. Greaves 14'

2/14/2023

Championship · Round 32Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Norwich45%

×Draw25%

Hull City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.20

Norwich

1.52

Hull City

1.20

Norwich creates 27% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

1.52

creates per match

1.12

1.27

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Norwich

1.52

Hull City

1.12

allows per match

Norwich

1.27

Hull City

1.52

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Norwich+0.20scores more

Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

70%

Norwich or Hull City

75%

Draw or Hull City

55%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

22%

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

78%

Norwich 2+ goals

45%

Norwich 3+ goals

20%

Hull City 1+ goals

70%

Hull City 2+ goals

34%

Hull City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

60%

Hull City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.27 · 58 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hull City attack 1.12 + Norwich defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Norwich scores more

45%

level

25%

Hull City scores more

30%

Norwich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Gabriel Sara

Norwich · M

8.7

Match Events

14'

J. Greaves↳ B. Tetteh

18'

K. Dowell↳ O. Hernández

58'

Gabriel Sara↳ O. Hernández

59'

D. Pelkas← Ó. Estupiñán

59'

68'

68'

72'

76'

79'

L. Coyle← C. Christie

86'

C. Tzolis← O. Hernández

89'

J. Sargent↳ Gabriel Sara

90+2'

B. Gibson← D. Giannoulis

90+2'

J. Sørensen← M. Aarons

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichHull

Overview

58%Possession42%

21Total Shots3

5Corners3

8Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots3

6On Target1

6Off Target1

9Blocked1

15Inside Box2

6Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

576Total Passes413

479Accurate Passes322

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1