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Northern Ireland vs Belarus — UEFA Nations League 2018

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Belarus
Belarus
11/15/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 5Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Northern Ireland39%
×Draw26%
Belarus35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Ireland
1.36
Belarus
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Northern Ireland
1.55
Belarus
1.17

allows per match

Northern Ireland
1.36
Belarus
1.17

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw
65%
Northern Ireland or Belarus
74%
Draw or Belarus
61%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+
18%
Belarus wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals
74%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
39%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
16%
Belarus 1+ goals
72%
Belarus 2+ goals
36%
Belarus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
53%
Belarus (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.55 + Belarus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Belarus attack 1.17 + Northern Ireland defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Northern Ireland scores more
39%
level
26%
Belarus scores more
35%

Northern Ireland at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern Ireland vs Belarus

Northern Ireland beat Belarus 2-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 15, 2024.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.