Belarus 0–1 Northern Ireland: Result & Stats

Belarus

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northern Ireland

P. McNair 86'

6/11/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 4Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belarus40%

×Draw27%

Northern Ireland33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelarusExpected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Belarus

1.33

Northern Ireland

1.17

Belarus creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Belarus

0.33

Northern Ireland

1.33

allows per match

Belarus

1.00

Northern Ireland

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Northern Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Belarus or draw

67%

Belarus or Northern Ireland

73%

Draw or Northern Ireland

60%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+

18%

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals

74%

Belarus 2+ goals

38%

Belarus 3+ goals

15%

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

69%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

33%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)

55%

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 0.33 + Northern Ireland defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Northern Ireland attack 1.33 + Belarus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belarus scores more

40%

level

27%

Northern Ireland scores more

33%

Belarus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Smith

Northern Ireland · D

7.9

Match Events

35'

Nikita Korzun

46'

S. Kislyak← N. Korzun

56'

S. Dallas← J. Magennis

57'

Jamal Lewis

58'

D. Laptev← E. Shikavka

69'

Jonny Evans

69'

G. Saville← C. Evans

71'

O. Veretilo← I. Shitov

72'

K. Lafferty← C. Washington

83'

Kyle Lafferty

86'

P. McNair

90'

Stuart Dallas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelarusNorthern

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots13

7Corners8

17Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target4

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

454Total Passes358

365Accurate Passes273

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1