Northern Ireland 2–1 Belarus: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Belarus

3/24/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Northern Ireland62%

×Draw24%

Belarus15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchBelarus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.68

Northern Ireland

1.70

Belarus

0.68

Northern Ireland creates 150% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.60

0.75

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.00

Belarus

0.60

allows per match

Northern Ireland

0.75

Belarus

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Belarus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

85%

Northern Ireland or Belarus

76%

Draw or Belarus

38%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

35%

Belarus wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

82%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

51%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

24%

Belarus 1+ goals

49%

Belarus 2+ goals

15%

Belarus 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

81%

Belarus (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Belarus away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.00 + Belarus defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Belarus attack 0.60 + Northern Ireland defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

62%

level

24%

Belarus scores more

15%

Northern Ireland at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff