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Belarus vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Belarus
Belarus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
10/12/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 3ZTE-Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belarus51%
×Draw31%
Northern Ireland17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus
1.18
Northern Ireland
0.55

Belarus creates 115% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Belarus
0.91
Northern Ireland
0.64

allows per match

Belarus
0.45
Northern Ireland
1.45

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Belarus or draw
83%
Belarus or Northern Ireland
69%
Draw or Northern Ireland
49%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+
23%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals
69%
Belarus 2+ goals
33%
Belarus 3+ goals
12%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
42%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
11%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)
75%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 0.91 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.18

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Belarus defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Belarus scores more
51%
level
31%
Northern Ireland scores more
17%

Belarus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
F. LapoukhovBelarusBelarus · G
8.9

Match Events

18'
Kirill Pechenin
41'
Sergei Politevich
43'
Eoin Toal
64'
S. Karpovich← Y. Kovalev
64'
G. Barkovskiy← E. Shikavka
67'
B. Spencer← J. Lewis
67'
D. Charles← C. Marshall
75'
V. Klimovich← E. Yablonskiy
75'
A. Kontsevoy← D. Antilevskiy
76'
L. Bonis← J. Reid
83'
A. McCann← G. Saville
83'
P. Smyth← I. Price
90'
V. Bocherov← N. Korzun

Possession

39%Belarus

Shots

6Belarus

Pass accuracy

48%Belarus

Statistics

BelarusNorthern
Overview
39%Possession61%
6Total Shots15
3Corners7
16Fouls18
Shots
6Total Shots15
2On Target7
2Off Target4
2Blocked4
4Inside Box12
2Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
312Total Passes485
236Accurate Passes406
76%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Belarus vs Northern Ireland

Belarus and Northern Ireland drew 0-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 12, 2024.

Northern Ireland controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at ZTE-Aréna in Zalaegerszeg.