Northampton 3–1 Reading: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Reading

M. Pinnock 90+6'

L. Appéré 37'

S. Hoskins 10'

D. Ballard 66'

10/3/2023

League One · Round 11Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Northampton36%

×Draw24%

Reading40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.63

Northampton

1.54

Reading

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.32

creates per match

1.49

1.77

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Northampton

1.32

Reading

1.49

allows per match

Northampton

1.77

Reading

1.76

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.07on par

Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

60%

Northampton or Reading

76%

Draw or Reading

64%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

17%

Reading wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

79%

Northampton 2+ goals

45%

Northampton 3+ goals

20%

Reading 1+ goals

80%

Reading 2+ goals

48%

Reading 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

47%

Reading (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.77 · 8 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.32 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Reading attack 1.49 + Northampton defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northampton scores more

36%

level

24%

Reading scores more

40%

Reading at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Hoskins

Northampton · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Andy Yiadom

10'

S. Hoskins↳ L. Appéré

11'

Charlie Savage

15'

Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan

37'

L. Appéré↳ K. Bowie

46'

H. Knibbs← P. Mukairu

46'

S. Hutchinson← C. Savage

52'

E. Monthe← J. Guthrie

61'

D. Ballard← C. Vickers

66'

D. Ballard↳ H. Knibbs

72'

H. Lintott← L. Appéré

72'

C. Mola← M. Carson

73'

A. McGowan← A. Odimayo

78'

Clinton Mola

80'

Shaun McWilliams

82'

T. Simpson← K. Bowie

82'

B. Elliott← K. Ehibhatiomhan

83'

B. Fox← S. McWilliams

90+6'

M. Pinnock↳ S. Hoskins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonReading

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots7

4Corners1

5Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target4

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

11Inside Box5

1Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

357Total Passes482

199Accurate Passes317

56%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1