Nizhny Novgorod 1–3 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Nizhny Novgorod

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Shinnik Yaroslavl

I. Portnyagin 13'

A. Pugin 83'

E. Nizamutdinov 10'

D. Samoylov 3'

7/19/2019

First League · Round 3Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Nizhny Novgorod50%

×Draw27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nizhny NovgorodExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Nizhny Novgorod

1.45

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.90

Nizhny Novgorod creates 61% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 124 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.79

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Nizhny Novgorod

1.41

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.00

allows per match

Nizhny Novgorod

0.79

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nizhny Novgorod ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nizhny Novgorod or draw

77%

Nizhny Novgorod or Shinnik Yaroslavl

73%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

50%

Winning margin

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

25%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

77%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

42%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

18%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

59%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

23%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

68%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nizhny Novgorod at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 58 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.41 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.00 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

50%

level

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

23%

Nizhny Novgorod at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

10'

13'

29'

50'

62'

A. Pugin← E. Nizamutdinov

65'

S. Samodin← I. Viznovich

66'

P. Ignatovich← A. Stavpets

67'

A. Maksimenko← A. Sergeev

70'

M. Palienko← P. Golyshev

73'

T. Pukhov← I. Oleynikov

75'

A. Salugin← A. Sapeta

79'

A. Ektov← V. Aleynikov

83'

V. Fedoriv← I. Temnikov

83'

M. Bakaev← D. Samoylov

83'

88'

90'

90'

Nizhny

Shinnik

16

94

2

13

5

27

▼

Aleynikov

8

Kozhemyak

15

⚽

▼

Samoylov

10

▼

Oleynikov

9

⚽

▼

Nizamutdi

98

▼

1

55

4

30

▼

Temnikov

17

▼

Golyshev

61

▼

Stavpets

41

▼

Sapeta

8

Chudin

20

Komolov

11

▼

Sergeev

97

⚽

Portnyagi

Manager: D. Cheryshev

66'▲P. Ignatovich←▼A. Stavpets

67'▲A. Maksimenko←▼A. Sergeev

70'▲M. Palienko←▼P. Golyshev

75'▲A. Salugin←▼A. Sapeta

83'▲V. Fedoriv←▼I. Temnikov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

13Ignatovich7Maksimenko10Palienko77Salugin24Fedoriv29Khozin58Zuev87Lebedev88Shilnikov12Guseynov

Manager: A. Pobegalov

62'▲A. Pugin←▼E. Nizamutdinov

65'▲S. Samodin←▼I. Viznovich

73'▲T. Pukhov←▼I. Oleynikov

79'▲A. Ektov←▼V. Aleynikov

83'▲M. Bakaev←▼D. Samoylov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

7Pugin22Samodin11Pukhov20Ektov88Bakaev1Antipin50Vovk77Gongapshev

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 in First League on July 19, 2019.

Goals: D. Samoylov (3'), E. Nizamutdinov (10'), I. Portnyagin (13'), A. Pugin (83').

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.

Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl