Niort 1–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chateauroux

B. Boutobba 68'

P. Ibara 14'

2/5/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Niort39%

×Draw30%

Chateauroux31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.98

Niort

1.14

Chateauroux

0.98

Niort creates 16% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 52 away

1.09

creates per match

0.75

1.22

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Chateauroux

0.75

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Chateauroux

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Niort or draw

69%

Niort or Chateauroux

70%

Draw or Chateauroux

61%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

16%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

68%

Niort 2+ goals

32%

Niort 3+ goals

11%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

62%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

26%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

56%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Chateauroux defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Chateauroux attack 0.75 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more

39%

level

30%

Chateauroux scores more

31%

Niort at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

B. Boutobba

Niort · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

P. Ibara↳ C. Opéri

25'

Prince Ibara

46'

C. Doucouré← P. Ibara

49'

55'

56'

59'

67'

I. Chouaref← R. Grange

68'

B. Boutobba↳ B. Doukansy

80'

A. Gonçalves← P. Keny

84'

L. Vallier← V. Jacob

87'

Joseph Mendes← P. Bâ

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortChateauroux

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots11

9Corners4

12Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots11

6On Target6

4Off Target3

4Blocked2

5Inside Box9

9Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

374Total Passes327

296Accurate Passes256

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls21

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Niort vs Chateauroux

Niort and Chateauroux drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on February 5, 2021.

Goals: P. Ibara (14'), B. Boutobba (68').

Niort controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Chateauroux — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Niort vs Chateauroux