Chateauroux 1–1 Niort: Result & Stats

Chateauroux

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Niort

R. Grange 36' (pen)

A. Baroan 14'

11/16/2019

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chateauroux24%

×Draw27%

Niort49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.42

Chateauroux

0.91

Niort

1.42

Niort creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

1.43

1.40

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.40

Niort

1.43

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.40

Niort

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

51%

Chateauroux or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

76%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

8%

Niort wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

60%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

23%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

6%

Niort 1+ goals

76%

Niort 2+ goals

41%

Niort 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

33%

Niort (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Niort away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.40 + Niort defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.91

Niort attack 1.43 + Chateauroux defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chateauroux scores more

24%

level

27%

Niort scores more

49%

Niort at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Baroan

36'

R. GrangePenalty

68'

I. Chouaref← A. Jung

68'

P. Keny← L. Ghezali

76'

A. Goncalves← F. Diarra

77'

D. Yongwa Ngameni← F. Lapis

89'

B. Konaté← G. Koyalipou

101'

D. Louiserre← Y. Bourhane

110'

S. Tsouka Dozi← I. Marega

Chateauroux

Niort

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Usaï

68'▲I. Chouaref←▼A. Jung

68'▲P. Keny←▼L. Ghezali

76'▲A. Goncalves←▼F. Diarra

110'▲S. Tsouka Dozi←▼I. Marega

Chateauroux substitutes

ChouarefKenyGoncalvesDoziBedfian

Manager: P. Plancque

77'▲D. Yongwa Ngameni←▼F. Lapis

89'▲B. Konaté←▼G. Koyalipou

101'▲D. Louiserre←▼Y. Bourhane

Niort substitutes

NgameniKonatéLouiserrePauchetJacob