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Chateauroux vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Chateauroux
Chateauroux
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Niort
Niort
1/24/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chateauroux39%
×Draw27%
Niort34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chateauroux
1.27
Niort
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 92 away

creates per match

Chateauroux
1.00
Niort
0.85

allows per match

Chateauroux
1.46
Niort
1.54

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw
66%
Chateauroux or Niort
73%
Draw or Niort
61%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+
17%
Niort wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals
72%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
36%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
14%
Niort 1+ goals
69%
Niort 2+ goals
32%
Niort 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)
54%
Niort (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.00 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Niort attack 0.85 + Chateauroux defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chateauroux scores more
39%
level
27%
Niort scores more
34%

Chateauroux at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chateauroux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Chateauroux 1–1 Niort

Chateauroux and Niort drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on January 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux) in Châteauroux.