Chateauroux 2–0 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Niort

R. Mulumba 87'

G. Tormin 37'

10/3/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chateauroux39%

×Draw27%

Niort34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Chateauroux

1.27

Niort

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 92 away

1.00

creates per match

0.85

1.46

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.00

Niort

0.85

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.46

Niort

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

66%

Chateauroux or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

61%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

17%

Niort wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

72%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

36%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

14%

Niort 1+ goals

69%

Niort 2+ goals

32%

Niort 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

54%

Niort (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.00 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Niort attack 0.85 + Chateauroux defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chateauroux scores more

39%

level

27%

Niort scores more

34%

Chateauroux at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chateauroux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Mulumba

Chateauroux · M

8.7

Match Events

37'

G. Tormin↳ I. Chouaref

49'

Romain Grange

62'

D. Djigla← G. Koyalipou

64'

64'

72'

76'

77'

80'

86'

87'

88'

A. Gonçalves← I. Chouaref

90'

Ibrahim Cissé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxNiort

Overview

47%Possession53%

19Total Shots10

9Corners5

15Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots10

9On Target1

8Off Target6

2Blocked3

11Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

362Total Passes399

277Accurate Passes307

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0