Niort 0–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

C. Mandanne 61'

11/23/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Niort39%

×Draw30%

Chateauroux31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.99

Niort

1.14

Chateauroux

0.99

Niort creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

1.09

creates per match

0.75

1.23

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Chateauroux

0.75

allows per match

Niort

1.23

Chateauroux

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Niort or draw

69%

Niort or Chateauroux

70%

Draw or Chateauroux

61%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

16%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

68%

Niort 2+ goals

32%

Niort 3+ goals

11%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

63%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

26%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

55%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Chateauroux defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Chateauroux attack 0.75 + Niort defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more

39%

level

30%

Chateauroux scores more

31%

Niort at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Pillot

Chateauroux · G

7.9

Match Events

11'

Kevin Yamga

33'

Z. Grich← Q. Bena

40'

Tom Lebeau

55'

Christophe Mandanne

61'

C. Mandanne↳ M. Barthelmé

62'

63'

67'

69'

72'

J. Livolant← A. Yamga

75'

David Djigla

77'

A. Sissako← C. Mandanne

90'

Thibaut Vion

90'

F. Diarra← M. Barthelmé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortChateauroux

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots12

6Corners4

18Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target2

6Off Target9

3Blocked1

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

407Total Passes330

303Accurate Passes228

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides4