Newroz 1–1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Newroz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

O. Mrsic 18'

M. Abu Taha 68'

4/27/2026

Iraqi League · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Newroz39%

×Draw28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewrozExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.09

Newroz

1.23

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.09

Newroz creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Newroz

1.33

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.18

allows per match

Newroz

1.00

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newroz+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newroz ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Newroz or draw

68%

Newroz or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

72%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

61%

Winning margin

Newroz wins by 2+

17%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Newroz 1+ goals

71%

Newroz 2+ goals

35%

Newroz 3+ goals

13%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

66%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

30%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Newroz (draw refunded)

55%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newroz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newroz attack 1.33 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.18 + Newroz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newroz scores more

39%

level

28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

32%

Newroz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

O. Mrsic

68'

M. Abu Taha↳ S. Abdulameer

Newroz

Al

Manager: J. Tsombos

Manager: Wesam Rizik