Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2–1 Newroz: Result & Stats

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Newroz

Ali Jasim 53'

Aymen Hussein 7' (pen)

Mohammad Sami 45+5' (pen)

11/2/2023

Iraqi League · Round 3Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya48%

×Draw27%

Newroz25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Quwa Al JawiyaExpected goals in this matchNewroz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.95

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.42

Newroz

0.95

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 49% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 37 away

1.65

creates per match

1.14

0.77

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.65

Newroz

1.14

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.77

Newroz

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Newroz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw

75%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Newroz

73%

Draw or Newroz

52%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

23%

Newroz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

76%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

41%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

17%

Newroz 1+ goals

61%

Newroz 2+ goals

25%

Newroz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

65%

Newroz (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.65 + Newroz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.42

Newroz attack 1.14 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

48%

level

27%

Newroz scores more

25%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Aymen HusseinPenalty

45+5'

Mohammad SamiPenalty

53'

Ali Jasim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff